Underneath every post is a ~100,000-word document built the unfashionable way: from physical constraints upward, with scored probabilities, named falsifiers, and a quarterly indicator dashboard. Posts here take one claim out of it, put current numbers against it, and say plainly what would prove it wrong.
No takes without an order book behind them. Each piece ends on the one line worth keeping. New here? The framework is the map: what each named concept claims, and how the posts fit together. And the claims that can be caught failing live on the scorecard, each with a probability, a resolution date, and the rule it will be graded by.
Posts
| You Cannot Own a Falling Floor Inference cost at a fixed capability fell 100 to 1000 times in two years, on a published schedule. Any product whose moat is model access has about two years of shelf life. | 9 min | |
| The Taiwan Risk Is Not the One You Are Watching The likelier failure is not an invasion but a quarantine, a war-risk insurance premium, and an export licence that takes eleven months instead of three. | 7 min | |
| AI Is Superhuman Wherever the Scoreboard Is Cheap AI is superhuman at competitive programming and merely fine at telling you whether to take the job. What separates the two is the cost of checking the answer. | 11 min | |
| No Night, No Neighbors Solar is the cheapest electricity ever sold, for about a quarter of the day. The cost of firming the other three quarters, plus the politics of every terrestrial site, is the case for putting datacenters in orbit, and in June SpaceX turned that case into a product. | 10 min | |
| The Bottleneck Migrates: Silicon → Electrons → Permits For thirty years the binding constraint was chip supply. By 2028 it is interconnection queues, turbine order books, and environmental review. | 9 min |
Follow
RSS · the corpus · ask it a question · source