# The Next Fifteen Years, From First Principles

A forecast of AI and the world economy through 2040: one argument across ~100,000 words and 90 pages, with scored probabilities, named falsifiers, and a quarterly indicator dashboard.

*Written 2026-07-30. Quantities reflect knowledge through mid-2026. Probabilities are subjective.*

**Read it at [future.lulzx.space](https://future.lulzx.space)**. Short on time? Start with [the compressed version](00-overview/compressed.md).

Built from physical constraints upward, then the strategic games that sit on top of them, then domain by domain, then timelines.

The argument has one spine: **capability grows fastest where verification is cheap, and value accrues to whatever intelligence cannot manufacture.** Everything below is a consequence of those two sentences colliding with physics, capital, and incentives.

Three design choices distinguish this from most AI forecasting, and none of them is decorative:

1. **Bottom-up from constraints**, not top-down from capabilities. Instead of asking "what will models be able to do," it asks what the four physical inputs permit, and lets capability fall out as a residual. Constraint-first reasoning is harder to bend toward a preferred conclusion, because queues, order books, and capex guidance are checkable in a way that vibes about model quality are not.

2. **Every major claim is paired with a way to catch it failing** - a falsifier in [Part VI](06-uncertainties/), an indicator in [Part VII](07-indicators/), or a scored probability in [Part V](05-probabilities/). A forecast that cannot be caught failing is marketing.

3. **One argument, not a scenario fan.** Rather than hedging across futures, it commits to a single causal chain and then attacks that chain in the open ([steelman](08-method/steelman.md), [uncertainties](06-uncertainties/)). The cost of that choice is brittleness where the chain is wrong; the [dependency index](00-overview/dependencies.md) exists so that a break propagates honestly instead of being patched leaf by leaf.

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## Contents

### [00 - Overview](00-overview/)
- [Thesis](00-overview/thesis.md) - the argument in one page
- [The compressed version](00-overview/compressed.md) - if you read nothing else
- [Reading orders](00-overview/README.md) - linear, argument-first, sceptic-first, operator-first
- [Notation](00-overview/notation.md) - recurring shorthand
- [Dependencies](00-overview/dependencies.md) - reverse dependency index

### [01 - The Physical Substrate](01-substrate/)
What actually constrains this. Four inputs, four different ceilings.
- [Compute](01-substrate/compute.md) - scaling curves and the capex wall
- [Energy](01-substrate/energy.md) - the constraint that bites before capital does
- [Data](01-substrate/data.md) - exhaustion and the verification asymmetry
- [Capital](01-substrate/capital.md) - not a ceiling but a verdict, and the only input that can reverse
- [Inference economics](01-substrate/inference-economics.md) - the two-year moat

### [02 - The Games](02-games/)
Five strategic structures that determine behavior given the substrate.
- [Game 1 - Labs](02-games/1-labs.md): a Tullock contest, not a prisoner's dilemma
- [Game 2 - Nations](02-games/2-nations.md): a security dilemma with a leaky bucket
- [Game 3 - Firms](02-games/3-firms.md): the Red Queen, and why adoption doesn't mean profit
- [Game 4 - Labor](02-games/4-labor.md): comparative advantage doesn't guarantee a wage
- [Game 5 - Information](02-games/5-information.md): the collapse of costly signaling

### [03 - Domain by Domain](03-domains/)
Domains in three groups, ordered by the cost of ground truth.
- [**A - Cognitive**](03-domains/cognitive/) - output is symbols: [software](03-domains/cognitive/software.md) · [law](03-domains/cognitive/law.md) · [finance](03-domains/cognitive/finance.md) · [science](03-domains/cognitive/science.md) · [education](03-domains/cognitive/education.md) · [media](03-domains/cognitive/media.md) · [insurance](03-domains/cognitive/insurance.md) · [startups](03-domains/cognitive/startups/) ([ideas](03-domains/cognitive/startups/ideas.md)) · [meaning](03-domains/cognitive/meaning.md)
- [**B - Physical**](03-domains/physical/) - output is atoms: [medicine](03-domains/physical/medicine/) · [robotics](03-domains/physical/robotics/) · [energy sector](03-domains/physical/energy-sector.md) · [agriculture](03-domains/physical/agriculture.md) · [logistics](03-domains/physical/logistics.md)
- [**C - Contested**](03-domains/contested/) - an adversary optimizes against you: [geopolitics](03-domains/contested/geopolitics/) ([US–China](03-domains/contested/geopolitics/bipolar.md) · [India](03-domains/contested/geopolitics/india.md) · [Europe](03-domains/contested/geopolitics/europe.md) · [Gulf](03-domains/contested/geopolitics/gulf.md) · [Global South](03-domains/contested/geopolitics/global-south.md)) · [warfare](03-domains/contested/warfare.md) · [cybersecurity](03-domains/contested/cybersecurity.md) · [biosecurity](03-domains/contested/biosecurity.md) · [state capacity](03-domains/contested/state-capacity.md)

### [04 - Timelines](04-timelines/)
- [2026–2028](04-timelines/2026-2028.md) - the agentic transition and the capex test
- [2028–2032](04-timelines/2028-2032.md) - diffusion and the institutional lag
- [2032–2040](04-timelines/2032-2040.md) - the physical world
- [Scenarios](04-timelines/scenarios.md) - best case, base case, worst cases, and the named branches between

### [05 - Subjective Probabilities](05-probabilities/)
The numbers, re-scored against the corpus; [per-row reasoning](05-probabilities/reasoning.md), [ledger](05-probabilities/ledger.md), and the [register](05-probabilities/register.md) of probabilities stated elsewhere.

### [06 - Where This Is Most Likely Wrong](06-uncertainties/)
- [Recursive research acceleration](06-uncertainties/recursive-self-improvement.md) - highest parameter variance
- [Power permitting politics](06-uncertainties/power-permitting.md)
- [The apprenticeship gap after institutions respond](06-uncertainties/apprenticeship-gap.md)
- [Taiwan / leading-edge fab](06-uncertainties/taiwan.md) - invalidates the document if it fails
- [Learned verification](06-uncertainties/learned-verification.md) - framework-level risk
- [Correlated-failure insurability](06-uncertainties/correlated-risk.md) - deployment frontier as balance sheet

### [07 - The Indicator Dashboard](07-indicators/)
Every claim above, converted into something checkable on a quarterly cadence.
- [A - Substrate](07-indicators/substrate.md): are the ceilings binding on schedule?
- [B - Diffusion](07-indicators/diffusion/README.md): is it actually reaching the economy?
- [C - Governance](07-indicators/governance.md): which architecture do we get, and when?

### [08 - Method](08-method/)
Where the numbers come from, and how to tell when this is wrong rather than early.
- [Base rates](08-method/base-rates/README.md) - the reference classes underneath every estimate
- [Steelman](08-method/steelman.md) - the three strongest arguments against the framework itself
- [Scoring](08-method/scoring.md) - resolution rules, and the five ways this document will try to dodge

### [09 - The Macro-Financial Channel](09-macro/)
What happens to rates, prices, assets, and the tax base if any of this is true.
- [Rates and returns](09-macro/rates.md) - why success is self-limiting
- [Prices and the two economies](09-macro/prices.md) - the defining political-economy fact of the 2030s
- [Assets and distribution](09-macro/assets.md) - six of the seven inelastic complements are owned by capital
- [Fiscal](09-macro/fiscal.md) - a tax base built on labor income, meeting an economy that uses less of it
- [Demography](09-macro/demography.md) - the one already-determined force, and it points the other way

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## Indicators to watch

The five that matter most. Full dashboard with trigger values in [Part VII](07-indicators/).

| Indicator | What it tells you | Detail |
|---|---|---|
| Entry-level : senior posting ratio in knowledge professions | The leading edge of the labor transition | [Game 4](02-games/4-labor.md) |
| Internal research cycle time per validated experiment | Whether the RSI loop is closing | [Uncertainty 1](06-uncertainties/recursive-self-improvement.md) |
| Teleoperation-to-autonomy ratios in deployed robots | Real robotics progress, vs. demo videos | [Robotics](03-domains/physical/robotics/) |
| AI revenue run-rate vs. capex | Whether the 2027–29 correction lands | [Compute](01-substrate/compute.md) |
| Grid interconnection queue length | Whether the energy ceiling is loosening | [Energy](01-substrate/energy.md) |

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*Read linearly by following the **Next** link at the foot of each page, starting from [Thesis](00-overview/thesis.md).*

*This corpus is maintained by a repeating review-and-expand loop; see the [autoresearch protocol](RESEARCH.md). On the site: press `/` or use **Find** to search all pages.*