B - Diffusion Indicators#
Baselines as of mid-2026. Cadence: quarterly to annual.
These test the central timeline claim: that from ~2028 the binding constraint is institutional absorption, not model capability (Part IV). They are harder to read than the substrate indicators because most of the available data is self-reported and therefore biased in the direction Game 4 identifies.
Rule for this family: weight instrumented and revealed-preference measures above surveys, always.
The twelve indicators split on what they watch. The labor and institutions group tracks the people side - who gets hired, how skill is certified, what the tax base does, and where the welfare channel moves. The economic ledger group tracks whether the technology shows up in the numbers firms and statisticians keep - productivity, margins, pricing models, and the price level itself. The capability frontier group tracks the leading edge - how long agents run unsupervised, whether the verifiable/unverifiable gap holds, whether the research loop compresses, and whether any of it reaches atoms.
| # | Indicator | Page | Tests |
|---|---|---|---|
| B1 | Entry-level : senior posting ratio | Labor | Game 4, Uncertainty 3 |
| B2 | Measured productivity | Ledger | 2028–2032 J-curve |
| B3 | Firm-level margin dispersion | Ledger | Game 3 surplus capture |
| B4 | Agent reliability | Frontier | 2026–2028 transition |
| B5 | Outcome-priced contracting | Ledger | Capital revenue case |
| B6 | Assessment reversion | Labor | Game 5 |
| B7 | Two-economy price split | Ledger | Prices |
| B8 | Verifiable vs unverifiable gap | Frontier | Uncertainty 5 |
| B9 | Research cycle time (RSI panel) | Frontier | Uncertainty 1 |
| B10 | Labor share of tax base | Labor | Fiscal squeeze |
| B11 | Meaning and relationship channels | Labor | Meaning |
| B12 | Physical diffusion | Frontier | Robotics, Part V row 5 |
Read the family jointly, not row by row. The highest-information patterns are cross-group: B1 moving with B10 and B7 is the AI-relevant fiscal signature; B4 moving without B12 is the cognitive/physical fork confirming; B5 moving before B2 is revealed belief running ahead of measured fact, which is exactly the order every prior general-purpose technology showed.
Contamination hierarchy#
| Prefer | Distrust alone |
|---|---|
| Outcome-priced contracts (B5), margin dispersion (B3), component CPI (B7) | Vendor NPS, "AI adoption" surveys |
| Profession-level posting ratios (B1) | Blended "knowledge work" employment |
| Teleop→autonomy + delivered $/hour (B12) | Unit sales, demo videos |
| Production deployment depth (B8) | Benchmark gap closes |
Surveys are allowed as secondary series when they name the same object as an instrumented measure and move with it. Alone they are marketing.
A×B joint (reminder)#
B stall + A slack → institutions. B stall + A tight → substrate. Do not re-score Part IV from B alone. → substrate
Related: Game 3 · Game 4 · Part IV - Timelines · Part IX