# B - Diffusion Indicators

← [Part VII](../README.md) · [Index](../../README.md)

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*Baselines as of mid-2026. Cadence: quarterly to annual.*

These test the central timeline claim: that from ~2028 the binding constraint is **institutional absorption, not model capability** ([Part IV](../../04-timelines/)). They are harder to read than the substrate indicators because most of the available data is self-reported and therefore biased in the direction [Game 4](../../02-games/4-labor.md) identifies.

**Rule for this family: weight instrumented and revealed-preference measures above surveys, always.**

The twelve indicators split on what they watch. The [labor and institutions](labor.md) group tracks the people side - who gets hired, how skill is certified, what the tax base does, and where the welfare channel moves. The [economic ledger](economy.md) group tracks whether the technology shows up in the numbers firms and statisticians keep - productivity, margins, pricing models, and the price level itself. The [capability frontier](capability.md) group tracks the leading edge - how long agents run unsupervised, whether the verifiable/unverifiable gap holds, whether the research loop compresses, and whether any of it reaches atoms.

| # | Indicator | Page | Tests |
|---|---|---|---|
| B1 | Entry-level : senior posting ratio | [Labor](labor.md) | [Game 4](../../02-games/4-labor.md), [Uncertainty 3](../../06-uncertainties/apprenticeship-gap.md) |
| B2 | Measured productivity | [Ledger](economy.md) | [2028–2032](../../04-timelines/2028-2032.md) J-curve |
| B3 | Firm-level margin dispersion | [Ledger](economy.md) | [Game 3](../../02-games/3-firms.md) surplus capture |
| B4 | Agent reliability | [Frontier](capability.md) | [2026–2028](../../04-timelines/2026-2028.md) transition |
| B5 | Outcome-priced contracting | [Ledger](economy.md) | [Capital](../../01-substrate/capital.md) revenue case |
| B6 | Assessment reversion | [Labor](labor.md) | [Game 5](../../02-games/5-information.md) |
| B7 | Two-economy price split | [Ledger](economy.md) | [Prices](../../09-macro/prices.md) |
| B8 | Verifiable vs unverifiable gap | [Frontier](capability.md) | [Uncertainty 5](../../06-uncertainties/learned-verification.md) |
| B9 | Research cycle time (RSI panel) | [Frontier](capability.md) | [Uncertainty 1](../../06-uncertainties/recursive-self-improvement.md) |
| B10 | Labor share of tax base | [Labor](labor.md) | [Fiscal](../../09-macro/fiscal.md) squeeze |
| B11 | Meaning and relationship channels | [Labor](labor.md) | [Meaning](../../03-domains/cognitive/meaning.md) |
| B12 | Physical diffusion | [Frontier](capability.md) | [Robotics](../../03-domains/physical/robotics/), [Part V](../../05-probabilities/) row 5 |

Read the family jointly, not row by row. The highest-information patterns are cross-group: B1 moving with B10 and B7 is the AI-relevant fiscal signature; B4 moving without B12 is the cognitive/physical fork confirming; B5 moving before B2 is revealed belief running ahead of measured fact, which is exactly the order every prior general-purpose technology showed.

### Contamination hierarchy

| Prefer | Distrust alone |
|---|---|
| Outcome-priced contracts (B5), margin dispersion (B3), component CPI (B7) | Vendor NPS, "AI adoption" surveys |
| Profession-level posting ratios (B1) | Blended "knowledge work" employment |
| Teleop→autonomy + delivered $/hour (B12) | Unit sales, demo videos |
| Production deployment depth (B8) | Benchmark gap closes |

Surveys are allowed as *secondary* series when they name the same object as an instrumented measure and move with it. Alone they are marketing.

### A×B joint (reminder)

B stall + A slack → institutions. B stall + A tight → substrate. Do not re-score Part IV from B alone. → [substrate](../substrate.md)

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**Related:** [Game 3](../../02-games/3-firms.md) · [Game 4](../../02-games/4-labor.md) · [Part IV - Timelines](../../04-timelines/) · [Part IX](../../09-macro/)

**Next:** [Labor and institutions](labor.md)