The Next Fifteen Years

A forecast built from first principles
Section future / HISTORY.md

Round log archive - rounds 0–15#


Archived from RESEARCH.md §5 in round 20, per the open-queue item on log drag. The protocol's working table keeps only the recent window; the full early history lives here unchanged.

RoundDateFocusFiles afterLines after
02026-07-30Initial corpus - substrate, games, domains, timelines, probabilities, uncertainties341,195
12026-07-30Filled the declared-but-missing fourth input (capital); re-grounded energy and labor against mid-2026 data; promoted the root indicator table into Part VII with trigger values40~1,800
22026-07-30Domain breadth - insurance, agriculture, logistics, cybersecurity, biosecurity, state capacity. 03-domains/ hit the 10-file cap and split into cognitive / physical / contested, with all inbound links rewritten49~2,100
32026-07-30Method and falsifiability - Part VIII: reference classes, the three strongest arguments against the framework, resolution rules and the five dodges. Added Part 0 hub542,568
42026-07-30Robotics promoted to a directory - the swing variable for the 2030s was 37 lines. Split into the data problem, cost curves, supply chain, form factor58~3,000
52026-07-30Part IX - the macro-financial channel, the largest structural hole in the corpus. Rates, prices, assets, fiscal633,180
62026-07-30Geopolitics promoted to a directory - the non-US, non-China world was one paragraph. US–China, India, Europe, Gulf, Global South68~3,900
72026-07-30Demography integrated as the counterweight to Game 4; the financial governor folded back into Uncertainty 1693,615
82026-07-30Timelines synthesized against rounds 1–7; Part V re-scored and promoted (table + reasoning + ledger); uncertainties 4–6 added (Taiwan, learned verification, correlated risk)744,187
92026-07-30Medicine promoted (diagnostics / delivery / drug-discovery / liability); indicators absorb macro, Taiwan, insurance, RSI governors; Game 1 and Game 5 expanded784,573
102026-07-30Energy sector; meaning; warfare + state capacity depth804,874
112026-07-30Winter archaeology; Game 2 pass; B10 fiscal indicator804,956
122026-07-30Cyber+bio depth; education×meaning; Part V commentary hold805,084
132026-07-30Law+finance+science; notation+dependencies825,353
142026-07-30Media+software depth; check-invariants.sh825,459
152026-07-30Ag+logistics depth; B11 meaning indicators; energy split deferred825,547

End-state counts exact at round close; intermediate approximate.

Split and revision notes (rounds 1–15)#

Splits: r2 domain groups; r4 robotics; r6 geopolitics; r8 Part V; r9 medicine.

Revisions (rule 5): r3 Game 3 scope; r7 labor+RSI; r8 Part V numbers; r12 Part V hold.


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