Distributed predictions register#
Contents
The seven-row table is not the only place this corpus commits to numbers. Domain pages state their own probability-stamped predictions in blockquotes, per the file conventions. Invariant 4 requires every such probability to appear in Part V or link to it; this page is where they appear. It is also the feeder for the resolution log - when a claim below comes due, it gets scored there under the same rules as the main table.
The first claims due table in Part VIII is the near-term subset of this register plus the indicator triggers; this page is the complete set of confidence-stamped claims.
The register#
Ordered by due date. "P" is the stated confidence at the source; the source page carries the full claim and its failure mode.
| Due | P | Claim (short) | Where |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2029 | ~65% | >40% of new US frontier-training capacity on owned or bilateral generation | Energy |
| 2030 | ~55% | Driver-out hub-to-hub freight at commercial scale on major US corridors | Logistics |
| 2030 | ~60% | Binding rules on companion AI for minors in major markets | Meaning |
| 2030 | ~70% | AI-specific liability coverage as a material line with published rates | Insurance |
| 2032 | ~60% | Cyber: deterioration 2026–29, then structural improvement in the 2030s | Cybersecurity |
| 2032 | ~70% | Majority of general-purpose robot units manufactured globally are Chinese-made | Robotics - supply chain |
| 2032 | ~70% | Agricultural yield gains real (5–15% per input) while farm operating margins stay statistically unchanged | Agriculture |
| 2032 | ~90% | No major disruption to Taiwanese leading-edge output (input assumption) | Uncertainty 4 |
| 2035 | ~15% | Meaningful UBI in a major economy | Fiscal |
| 2035 | ~30% | Gulf capacity converts into broad domestic economic transformation | Gulf |
| 2035 | ~30% | Productivity step-up raises real rates >100bp against the demographic tide | Rates → row 2 |
| 2035 | ~50% | A major central bank formally revises its target definition or tolerance band | Prices |
| 2035 | ~55% / ~25% | Global South: meaningful welfare gains / meaningful growth gains | Global South |
| 2035 | ~70% | Licensed-trades real wage growth outpaces credentialed cognitive professions | Assets |
| 2040 | 40 / 45 / 15 | Growth outcome forks: materially higher / meaningful / disappointment | 2032–2040 |
Conditional claims - scoreable only if their trigger fires:
| Condition | P | Claim (short) | Where |
|---|---|---|---|
| The 2027–29 correction arrives | ~65% | Proximate trigger is a credit event in AI-adjacent structured finance | Capital |
| A salient incident occurs | ~50% | Operative technical content of the response is industry-originated | Game 2 |
Decompositions - attribution splits, not event probabilities; scored on mechanism accuracy:
| Split | Claim | Where |
|---|---|---|
| 50 / 30 / 20 | Entry-level hiring decline: AI substitution / cyclical / work-organization - flagged at source as the number most likely to be revised | Game 4 |
Round 19 closed the two flags this page opened in round 18: the energy 2029 and agriculture 2032 predictions were stamped (~65%, ~70%) at source and moved into the table above.
Reading the register as a set#
Three cautions apply to the table above that do not apply to any single row read alone.
Shared inputs cluster the outcomes. The ~90% Taiwan row is not one prediction among sixteen; it is an input sitting under most of the others. The robotics supply-chain claim, the cyber trajectory, the growth fork, and every compute-gated date inherit it, so the register's failure modes are correlated through it - if that row resolves badly, the correct response is the full-table re-score the main table mandates, not row-by-row scoring of claims whose common assumption failed. A second, softer cluster runs through permitting: the energy 2029 claim, the rates claim, and parts of the growth fork all lean on Uncertainty 2 resolving the way the corpus expects.
The tildes mean something. Every "~" marks a number elicited to the nearest 5 or 10 points, stated at the source page in the course of an argument rather than through the deliberation the seven main rows got. Calibration analysis should bucket them accordingly - a ~65% register claim resolving false is one point of evidence about a 60-70 band, not a Brier-score catastrophe. The compensating discipline is volume: sixteen roughly-stated claims scored together say more about calibration than seven carefully-stated ones, which is why scoring judges the bands across both pages jointly.
Resolution will be contested for about a third of these. "Commercial scale," "material line," "broad transformation" have judgment in them. The scoring rule already anticipates this - the source page carries the operational definition and the failure mode - but a register reader should know in advance which rows are crisp (Taiwan, Chinese-made majority, published insurance rates) and which will need the resolution argued in the ledger rather than looked up. A claim whose resolution essay exceeds its original argument was a badly specified claim, and logging that is itself framework correction.
How this page is maintained#
Any round that adds a probability-stamped blockquote anywhere in the corpus must add a row here in the same round (Reconcile step). When a claim resolves, its row moves to the resolution log with the outcome and the framework correction. Calibration is judged across this register and the main table together - the scoring 60% band lives mostly on this page.
Partial resolution rule: if a blockquote bundles clauses (e.g. consolidation and lag), score each clause when it becomes decidable - do not wait for the whole sentence. Document partials in the ledger; leave the source blockquote as authored until a re-score round rewrites it under scoring rule 5. That is how the open-weight lag was handled in r25–26 without laundering the miss.
Taiwan cluster: the ~90% fab row is not one of sixteen independent bets - it sits under compute-gated dates, robotics supply, and bipolar capacity. Gray-zone indicators (U4) can stress the consumed assumption while the stated disruption row still "holds." Log soft fails in the ledger before treating green crisis dashboards as vindication.
Related: Main table · Ledger · Scoring · Indicators