The Next Fifteen Years

A forecast built from first principles
Section future / 00-overview / dependencies.md

Reverse dependency index#


Contents

Claim → pages that rest on it. When a claim is falsified, re-read every dependent page; do not patch one leaf. Companion to scoring rule 5.

Not exhaustive. High-centrality claims only. Updated through round 13.

Spine#

ClaimDependents
Master asymmetry (verify-cheap → capability-fast)Entire Part III ordering; timelines; Uncertainty 5 if it fails; steelman §1
Value → inelastic complementsGame 3; Assets; Prices; domain "moat" sections; Startups (formation + selection)
Institutional lag > capability from ~20282028–2032; Part V row 2; steelman §3

Substrate#

ClaimDependents
Energy / permits bind before chips (US)Energy; Uncertainty 2; bipolar; A4; timelines 26–28
Capex wall / revenue testCompute; Capital; Part V row 6; A2; 2026–2028
Financing mix → credit-event formCapital; Finance; A3

Games#

ClaimDependents
No binding intl agreement before salient accidentGame 2; Part V rows 3–4; C1–C2; governance sections in cyber/bio/finance
Compute-governance trapBipolar; Game 2; Part V row 4; C3b
Apprenticeship gap (composition)Game 4; Uncertainty 3; law; education; meaning; B1
Aggregate labor displacement as upper boundGame 4 + demography; softens only the aggregate claim
Signaling collapse / verification scarceGame 5; education; media; compressed; B6

Uncertainties and underlying assumptions#

ClaimDependents
Taiwan ~90% continuity through 2032Nearly all compute-gated claims; Uncertainty 4; A6; Part V assumptions table
Three RSI governorsUncertainty 1; all timeline dates; B9; Part V row 7 tail interpretation
Correlated risk uninsurable at scaleInsurance; Uncertainty 6; deployment frontiers in law/medicine/cyber; C7
Learned verification fails to retire asymmetryDomain ordering; Uncertainty 5; B8

Domain swing variables#

ClaimDependents
Robotics data/cost/supply/formRobotics; 2032–2040; Part V row 5; geopolitics reshoring
Automated labs = 2030s prizeScience; drug discovery; biosecurity defense half; growth branch of 2032–40
Cyber offense trough 2026–29 then defenseCybersecurity; Game 2 incident priors; insurance
Bio offense–defense clocks divergeBiosecurity; Part V row 3 mechanism mix

How to use#

  1. A prediction misses → find its parent claim in the left column.
  2. Open every dependent link; mark which inherit the miss.
  3. Log the framework correction in ledger / RESEARCH per scoring rules - one upstream fix, not twenty silent edits.

Worked example. Suppose the 2029 behind-the-meter prediction in energy misses because permitting reform makes tariff supply competitive again. The parent claim is "energy / permits bind before chips" in the substrate table. Its dependents split on inspection: Uncertainty 2 anticipated exactly this skew, so it scores as a called shot, not a miss; the bipolar page loses its "US self-constrains" paragraph but keeps its structure; the 2026–2028 timeline moves left. One miss, three different inheritances. That asymmetry - dependents inherit a miss differently - is why the index maps pages rather than propagating a single truth value, and why step 2 says mark which, not mark all.

What the index deliberately leaves out. Low-centrality claims are excluded even when pages cite them, because an index that lists everything ranks nothing - the value here is the ranking, and a maintenance burden that grows with corpus size would eventually make the index wrong, which is worse than incomplete. The "updated through round 13" stamp above is therefore a feature to check, not an apology: when a new high-centrality claim appears (as complement erosion did in round 21), the Review step owes this page a row before the round closes.

High-centrality additions since the stamp#

Parent claimMajor dependents
Complement list has a half-life (U7)Assets; prices; Game 3 distributional read; U5 as accelerant
Open-weight lag ~3–6 months (measured)Game 1 prize; Game 2 leakage; Part V row 4; bipolar coupling; global-south lease
Gray-zone Taiwan (soft assumption fail)Compute risk premium; timelines in quarters; A6 not sufficient alone

These rows do not replace the stamp; they are the debt the stamp records. A future round that rewrites the full table should fold them into the main index and reset the stamp.


Related: Notation · Scoring · Protocol

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