[
  {
    "path": "00-overview/README.md",
    "title": "Part 0 - Overview"
  },
  {
    "path": "00-overview/compressed.md",
    "title": "The Compressed Version"
  },
  {
    "path": "00-overview/dependencies.md",
    "title": "Reverse dependency index"
  },
  {
    "path": "00-overview/notation.md",
    "title": "Notation - recurring shorthand"
  },
  {
    "path": "00-overview/thesis.md",
    "title": "Thesis"
  },
  {
    "path": "01-substrate/README.md",
    "title": "Part I - The Physical Substrate"
  },
  {
    "path": "01-substrate/capital.md",
    "title": "Capital - the input that is not scarce, and why that is the problem"
  },
  {
    "path": "01-substrate/compute.md",
    "title": "Compute"
  },
  {
    "path": "01-substrate/data.md",
    "title": "Data - and the master asymmetry"
  },
  {
    "path": "01-substrate/energy.md",
    "title": "Energy - the constraint that bites before capital does"
  },
  {
    "path": "01-substrate/inference-economics.md",
    "title": "Inference Economics - the two-year moat"
  },
  {
    "path": "02-games/1-labs.md",
    "title": "Game 1 - Labs: a Tullock contest, not a prisoner's dilemma"
  },
  {
    "path": "02-games/2-nations.md",
    "title": "Game 2 - Nations: a security dilemma with a leaky bucket"
  },
  {
    "path": "02-games/3-firms.md",
    "title": "Game 3 - Firms: the Red Queen, and why adoption doesn't mean profit"
  },
  {
    "path": "02-games/4-labor.md",
    "title": "Game 4 - Labor: comparative advantage doesn't guarantee a wage"
  },
  {
    "path": "02-games/5-information.md",
    "title": "Game 5 - Information: the collapse of costly signaling"
  },
  {
    "path": "02-games/README.md",
    "title": "Part II - The Games"
  },
  {
    "path": "03-domains/README.md",
    "title": "Part III - Domain by Domain"
  },
  {
    "path": "03-domains/cognitive/README.md",
    "title": "III.A - Cognitive Domains"
  },
  {
    "path": "03-domains/cognitive/education.md",
    "title": "Education"
  },
  {
    "path": "03-domains/cognitive/finance.md",
    "title": "Finance"
  },
  {
    "path": "03-domains/cognitive/insurance.md",
    "title": "Insurance - the institution that prices the whole transition"
  },
  {
    "path": "03-domains/cognitive/law.md",
    "title": "Law"
  },
  {
    "path": "03-domains/cognitive/meaning.md",
    "title": "Meaning, work, and relationships"
  },
  {
    "path": "03-domains/cognitive/media.md",
    "title": "Media, Art, and Culture"
  },
  {
    "path": "03-domains/cognitive/science.md",
    "title": "Science"
  },
  {
    "path": "03-domains/cognitive/software.md",
    "title": "Software Engineering"
  },
  {
    "path": "03-domains/cognitive/startups/README.md",
    "title": "Startups - cheap founding, expensive moats"
  },
  {
    "path": "03-domains/cognitive/startups/exits.md",
    "title": "Exits - death, acqui-hire, and the rare durable company"
  },
  {
    "path": "03-domains/cognitive/startups/formation.md",
    "title": "Formation - the cost of starting collapses"
  },
  {
    "path": "03-domains/cognitive/startups/ideas-atoms.md",
    "title": "Ideas - atoms and substrate"
  },
  {
    "path": "03-domains/cognitive/startups/ideas-institutions.md",
    "title": "Ideas - institutions, risk, and human formation"
  },
  {
    "path": "03-domains/cognitive/startups/ideas-verification.md",
    "title": "Ideas - verification and trust"
  },
  {
    "path": "03-domains/cognitive/startups/ideas.md",
    "title": "Ideas - requests for startups, from this forecast"
  },
  {
    "path": "03-domains/cognitive/startups/selection.md",
    "title": "Selection - which startups survive Game 3"
  },
  {
    "path": "03-domains/cognitive/startups/venture.md",
    "title": "Venture - power laws under flooded deal flow"
  },
  {
    "path": "03-domains/contested/README.md",
    "title": "III.C - Contested Domains"
  },
  {
    "path": "03-domains/contested/biosecurity.md",
    "title": "Biosecurity - the asymmetry that does not resolve"
  },
  {
    "path": "03-domains/contested/cybersecurity.md",
    "title": "Cybersecurity - where verification is cheapest, for both sides"
  },
  {
    "path": "03-domains/contested/geopolitics/README.md",
    "title": "Geopolitics and Development"
  },
  {
    "path": "03-domains/contested/geopolitics/bipolar.md",
    "title": "United States and China - asymmetric bottlenecks"
  },
  {
    "path": "03-domains/contested/geopolitics/europe.md",
    "title": "Europe - rule-setting without producing"
  },
  {
    "path": "03-domains/contested/geopolitics/global-south.md",
    "title": "The Global South - the technology is free and the complements are not"
  },
  {
    "path": "03-domains/contested/geopolitics/gulf.md",
    "title": "The Gulf - buying the complement you already own"
  },
  {
    "path": "03-domains/contested/geopolitics/india.md",
    "title": "India - the exposed sector is the growth model"
  },
  {
    "path": "03-domains/contested/state-capacity.md",
    "title": "State Capacity - the precondition for every governance claim"
  },
  {
    "path": "03-domains/contested/warfare.md",
    "title": "Warfare"
  },
  {
    "path": "03-domains/physical/README.md",
    "title": "III.B - Physical Domains"
  },
  {
    "path": "03-domains/physical/agriculture.md",
    "title": "Agriculture - one experiment per year"
  },
  {
    "path": "03-domains/physical/energy-sector.md",
    "title": "Energy sector - AI as demand *and* as tool"
  },
  {
    "path": "03-domains/physical/logistics.md",
    "title": "Logistics - solved in the planner, unsolved in the last hundred metres"
  },
  {
    "path": "03-domains/physical/medicine/README.md",
    "title": "Medicine"
  },
  {
    "path": "03-domains/physical/medicine/delivery.md",
    "title": "Delivery - consumer triage and the formal system"
  },
  {
    "path": "03-domains/physical/medicine/diagnostics.md",
    "title": "Diagnostics - the radiology template"
  },
  {
    "path": "03-domains/physical/medicine/drug-discovery.md",
    "title": "Drug discovery - preclinical speed, clinical wall"
  },
  {
    "path": "03-domains/physical/medicine/liability.md",
    "title": "Liability and licensure - authorization as the bottleneck"
  },
  {
    "path": "03-domains/physical/robotics/README.md",
    "title": "Manufacturing and Robotics"
  },
  {
    "path": "03-domains/physical/robotics/cost-curves.md",
    "title": "Cost Curves - the threshold is economic, not technical"
  },
  {
    "path": "03-domains/physical/robotics/data-problem.md",
    "title": "The Data Problem - there is no internet of manipulation"
  },
  {
    "path": "03-domains/physical/robotics/form-factor.md",
    "title": "Form Factor - the humanoid bet, and why it is right for the wrong reasons"
  },
  {
    "path": "03-domains/physical/robotics/supply-chain.md",
    "title": "Supply Chain - why this is not an AI race"
  },
  {
    "path": "04-timelines/2026-2028.md",
    "title": "2026–2028 - the agentic transition and the capex test"
  },
  {
    "path": "04-timelines/2028-2032.md",
    "title": "2028–2032 - diffusion and the institutional lag"
  },
  {
    "path": "04-timelines/2032-2040.md",
    "title": "2032–2040 - the physical world"
  },
  {
    "path": "04-timelines/README.md",
    "title": "Part IV - What Actually Happens"
  },
  {
    "path": "04-timelines/scenarios.md",
    "title": "Scenarios - best, worst, and the worlds between"
  },
  {
    "path": "05-probabilities/README.md",
    "title": "Part V - Subjective Probabilities"
  },
  {
    "path": "05-probabilities/ledger.md",
    "title": "Probability scoring ledger"
  },
  {
    "path": "05-probabilities/reasoning.md",
    "title": "Per-row reasoning - what moves each probability"
  },
  {
    "path": "05-probabilities/register.md",
    "title": "Distributed predictions register"
  },
  {
    "path": "06-uncertainties/README.md",
    "title": "Part VI - Where This Analysis Is Most Likely Wrong"
  },
  {
    "path": "06-uncertainties/apprenticeship-gap.md",
    "title": "Uncertainty 3 - The shape of the apprenticeship gap after institutions respond"
  },
  {
    "path": "06-uncertainties/complement-erosion.md",
    "title": "Uncertainty 7 - Complement erosion: the scarce list has a half-life"
  },
  {
    "path": "06-uncertainties/correlated-risk.md",
    "title": "Uncertainty 6 - Correlated-failure insurability as the deployment frontier"
  },
  {
    "path": "06-uncertainties/learned-verification.md",
    "title": "Uncertainty 5 - Learned verification defeats the master asymmetry"
  },
  {
    "path": "06-uncertainties/power-permitting.md",
    "title": "Uncertainty 2 - The political feasibility of rapid power permitting in the US"
  },
  {
    "path": "06-uncertainties/recursive-self-improvement.md",
    "title": "Uncertainty 1 - The speed of recursive research acceleration"
  },
  {
    "path": "06-uncertainties/taiwan.md",
    "title": "Uncertainty 4 - Taiwan and leading-edge fabrication"
  },
  {
    "path": "07-indicators/README.md",
    "title": "Part VII - The Indicator Dashboard"
  },
  {
    "path": "07-indicators/diffusion/README.md",
    "title": "B - Diffusion Indicators"
  },
  {
    "path": "07-indicators/diffusion/capability.md",
    "title": "Diffusion - The Capability Frontier (B4, B8, B9, B12)"
  },
  {
    "path": "07-indicators/diffusion/economy.md",
    "title": "Diffusion - The Economic Ledger (B2, B3, B5, B7)"
  },
  {
    "path": "07-indicators/diffusion/labor.md",
    "title": "Diffusion - Labor and Institutions (B1, B6, B10, B11)"
  },
  {
    "path": "07-indicators/governance.md",
    "title": "C - Governance Indicators"
  },
  {
    "path": "07-indicators/substrate.md",
    "title": "A - Substrate Indicators"
  },
  {
    "path": "08-method/README.md",
    "title": "Part VIII - Method"
  },
  {
    "path": "08-method/base-rates/README.md",
    "title": "Base Rates - the reference classes underneath the estimates"
  },
  {
    "path": "08-method/base-rates/cycles.md",
    "title": "Base Rates - Technology and Capital Cycles (classes 1–2)"
  },
  {
    "path": "08-method/base-rates/social-response.md",
    "title": "Base Rates - Social Response (classes 3, 5, 6)"
  },
  {
    "path": "08-method/base-rates/winters.md",
    "title": "Base Rates - AI Winters, Failure Archaeology (class 4)"
  },
  {
    "path": "08-method/scoring.md",
    "title": "Scoring - how to hold this document accountable"
  },
  {
    "path": "08-method/steelman.md",
    "title": "Steelman - the strongest arguments against this document"
  },
  {
    "path": "09-macro/README.md",
    "title": "Part IX - The Macro-Financial Channel"
  },
  {
    "path": "09-macro/assets.md",
    "title": "Assets and Distribution - who owns the inelastic complements"
  },
  {
    "path": "09-macro/demography.md",
    "title": "Demography - the large, predictable force pointing the other way"
  },
  {
    "path": "09-macro/fiscal.md",
    "title": "Fiscal - a tax base built on labor income"
  },
  {
    "path": "09-macro/prices.md",
    "title": "Prices and the Two Economies"
  },
  {
    "path": "09-macro/rates.md",
    "title": "Rates and Returns - why success is self-limiting"
  },
  {
    "path": "HISTORY.md",
    "title": "Round log archive - rounds 0–15"
  },
  {
    "path": "README.md",
    "title": "The Next Fifteen Years, From First Principles"
  },
  {
    "path": "RESEARCH.md",
    "title": "Autoresearch Protocol"
  },
  {
    "path": "blog/README.md",
    "title": "Ground Truth - blog"
  },
  {
    "path": "blog/forecasts.md",
    "title": "The Scorecard"
  },
  {
    "path": "blog/framework.md",
    "title": "The Framework"
  },
  {
    "path": "blog/falling-floor.md",
    "title": "You Cannot Own a Falling Floor"
  },
  {
    "path": "blog/taiwan-gray-zone.md",
    "title": "The Taiwan Risk Is Not the One You Are Watching"
  },
  {
    "path": "blog/cheap-scoreboard.md",
    "title": "AI Is Superhuman Wherever the Scoreboard Is Cheap"
  },
  {
    "path": "blog/no-night-no-neighbors.md",
    "title": "No Night, No Neighbors"
  },
  {
    "path": "blog/silicon-electrons-permits.md",
    "title": "The Bottleneck Migrates: Silicon → Electrons → Permits"
  }
]