# Notation - recurring shorthand

← [Part 0](README.md) · [Index](../README.md)

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Terms that carry load across the corpus. Definitions are operational, not dictionary.

| Term | Meaning here | Where it matters |
|---|---|---|
| **Master asymmetry** | Capability grows fastest where verification / ground truth is cheap | [Data](../01-substrate/data.md), all of [Part III](../03-domains/) |
| **Ground-truth cost** | Cost of knowing whether an output is correct (labels, experiments, P&L, exploits) | Domain ordering |
| **Effective compute** | Hardware × dollars × algorithmic efficiency; the real capability engine | [Compute](../01-substrate/compute.md) |
| **Inelastic complement** | Input intelligence cannot manufacture at will (energy, land, licenses, trust, distribution, physical presence…) | [Game 3](../02-games/3-firms.md), [Assets](../09-macro/assets.md) |
| **Red Queen** | Adoption mandatory; surplus competed away to customers in competitive markets | [Game 3](../02-games/3-firms.md) |
| **Apprenticeship gap** | Junior tasks automated → firms stop hiring juniors → seniors missing in 2040 | [Game 4](../02-games/4-labor.md), [Uncertainty 3](../06-uncertainties/apprenticeship-gap.md) |
| **J-curve** | Productivity statistics lag adoption until workflows redesign | [2028–2032](../04-timelines/2028-2032.md) |
| **Leaky bucket** | Frontier leads diffuse (weights, people, distillation) ~30–50%/yr | [Game 2](../02-games/2-nations.md) |
| **Compute-governance trap** | Export controls = competitive lever *and* only future verification tool; using one spends the other | [Bipolar](../03-domains/contested/geopolitics/bipolar.md), [Game 2](../02-games/2-nations.md) |
| **Salient incident** | Forcing event that opens an ~18-month rule-writing window | [Game 2](../02-games/2-nations.md) |
| **Three RSI governors** | Verification, physical supply chain, financial (neutral-rate) limits on takeoff | [Uncertainty 1](../06-uncertainties/recursive-self-improvement.md) |
| **Two economies** | Cognition-intensive deflation vs physical/care/energy inflation | [Prices](../09-macro/prices.md) |
| **Financial governor** | Success raises returns → raises discount rates → dearer next capex round | [Rates](../09-macro/rates.md), [Capital](../01-substrate/capital.md) |
| **Shelf-readiness** | Having a drafted architecture before the incident window opens | [C2](../07-indicators/governance.md) |
| **Outcome pricing** | Billing for results not seats; revealed belief in reliability | [B5](../07-indicators/diffusion/economy.md), [2026–2028](../04-timelines/2026-2028.md) |
| **Two-year moat** | Any fixed capability level becomes ~free within ~24 months; frontier access is a wasting asset | [Inference economics](../01-substrate/inference-economics.md), [Game 3](../02-games/3-firms.md) |
| **Revenue bar / capex test** | Does AI revenue reach ~$400–700B/yr by 2030, net of financing circularity | [Compute](../01-substrate/compute.md), [Capital](../01-substrate/capital.md), [A2](../07-indicators/substrate.md) |
| **Verification scarcity** | Post-collapse regime where generation is free and checking is the priced good | [Game 5](../02-games/5-information.md), [Compressed](compressed.md), [C8](../07-indicators/governance.md) |
| **Complement half-life** | Scarce-complement rows erode on dated horizons, not forever | [Uncertainty 7](../06-uncertainties/complement-erosion.md), [Assets](../09-macro/assets.md) |
| **Gray-zone Taiwan** | Soft fail of fab continuity (insurance, licenses, slip) without crisis headline | [Uncertainty 4](../06-uncertainties/taiwan.md), [A6](../07-indicators/substrate.md) |
| **Process vs outcome verification** | U5 middle case: process checks learnable, outcome truth still expensive | [Uncertainty 5](../06-uncertainties/learned-verification.md), [Law](../03-domains/cognitive/law.md) |
| **Behind-the-meter** | Captive generation / bilateral power routing around public interconnect queues | [Energy](../01-substrate/energy.md), [Uncertainty 2](../06-uncertainties/power-permitting.md) |

## How a term earns a row

A term is admitted here when it does real work in at least two parts of the corpus and would otherwise be re-derived in each. The definitions are operational on purpose: "inelastic complement" is defined by what happens to its price under demand, not by a category list, because the category list changes ([Uncertainty 7](../06-uncertainties/complement-erosion.md)) while the operational test does not. When a page uses one of these terms in a way that fails the operational test, that is a bug in the page, not a looseness in the term.

The vocabulary also serves [scoring](../08-method/scoring.md). A prediction phrased in a pinned term cannot quietly migrate its meaning after the fact - "the apprenticeship gap widened" resolves against the definition in this table, not against whatever the phrase has come to mean in 2032. Shared shorthand is a commitment device before it is a convenience.

## Three families

The table sorts into three kinds of object, and the kind tells you how a term can fail. **Asymmetries and structural facts** (master asymmetry, two economies, leaky bucket, Red Queen) describe gradients; they fail by flattening, and each has an indicator watching for that. **Governors and traps** (three RSI governors, financial governor, compute-governance trap) describe negative feedback; they fail by being bypassed, which is usually a bigger event than the term itself - a bypassed governor means a branch of [Part IV](../04-timelines/) is live. **Gaps and windows** (apprenticeship gap, J-curve, salient incident, shelf-readiness) describe timing mismatches; they fail by closing early, which is generally *good* news and is tracked in [Part VI](../06-uncertainties/) as upside skew. A term failing in a way its family does not predict - a gradient that reverses rather than flattens, say - is a sign the framework, not just the term, needs the [dependency index](dependencies.md) treatment.

## Cross-links

- **Spine:** [Thesis](thesis.md) · [Compressed](compressed.md)
- **Falsifiers:** [Uncertainties](../06-uncertainties/) · [Steelman](../08-method/steelman.md)
- **What rests on what:** [Dependency index](dependencies.md)

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**Next:** [Dependencies](dependencies.md) · [Thesis](thesis.md)